Ken Pomeroy's site is the Moneyball site for college basketball. The most useful part of his site is the distribution of points that teams score/give up as free throws, 2s and 3s. I used some of this data in making my picks, with mixed results. But it correctly predicted LSU's win over Duke.
Pomeroy also has a good article at ESPN Insider on points off turnovers. It means a lot in football, but not so much in basketball because only half of all turnovers are steals (which potentially lead to fast breaks the other way). The other half give the ball to the other team out of bounds, which isn't much of an advantage.
I'd be interested to see what the result of missed 3-pointers is -- how often do they lead to fast breaks the other way, and how often do they lead to offensive rebounds?