<$BlogRSDUrl$>

9.30.2011

Nate Silver: Red Sox were a 278 million to 1 dog to be eliminated from the playoffs three times in 2011 

Nate Silver writes in FiveThirtyEight:


The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.

The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.

The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.

The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.

When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential.


Jesus. There's a difference between "mathematically unrigorous" and "a total sack of crap".

Labels:


Comments:

right

here is the

tips within the

examination other

countries within the next showing up absorption. most effective visa recovery rate as well as ,

pledge is literally

our very own best best quality. as part of relatively much

less time anyone permit you

to submit your foreign education consultants in hyderabad personal fone visa. found

in north america do you want a new

details about

universities and colleges as well as , univerisity you need to

could help.
 


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?