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2.08.2010

Career passer ratings 

Fun game: Try to identify these NFL quarterbacks (all of whom have played in the 2000s) from their career regular season home/road passer rating splits (all statistics taken from pro-football-reference.com:

Quarterback A: 98.9/91.6
Quarterback B: 96.8/90.9
Quarterback C: 97.7/85.9
Quarterback D: 94.7/89.0
Quarterback E: 99.1/92.1
Quarterback F: 96.1/95.6
Quarterback G: 89.0/84.4
Quarterback H: 91.9/91.6
Quarterback I: 94.2/92.5

Answers in white below:

Quarterback A is Peyton Manning.
Quarterback B is Kurt Warner.
Quarterback C is Matt Schaub.
Quarterback D is Drew Brees.
Quarterback E is Tony Romo.
Quarterback F is Philip Rivers.
Quarterback G is Brett Favre.
Quarterback H is Ben Roethlisberger.
Quarterback I is Tom Brady.

For the alleged quant-fans who think that Quarterback A is the greatest quarterback of all time -- can you think of a reason why Quarterbacks A-E have such pronounced splits?

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Comments:

Their home fields always have good conditions.

Hines Field is known for its bad conditions, and Ben R has a negligible split. Foxboro can suck, too.

It could be exacerbated if the home fields for division rivals are bad.

Is there such a thing as "QB Stadium Factor"?
 


You could try to do something like MLB's park factors, but that stat would probably be heavily influenced by the actual QB whose home is that stadium and by HFA factors in general (e.g. crowd noise).

Football Outsiders tried to come up with weather adjustments for their DVOA statistic and couldn't make it work. I don't know if they're still trying it out or if they've abandoned the project.
 


The QB shouldn't matter because he plays an equal number of games on the road. But I could see that crowd noise would hurt just the road QB.

But boy, this sounds like it could be an interesting study.

Did you have a theory on the splits besides random variation?
 


I emailed footballoutsiders and they wrote back:
I think that's his point, but to extend them to "stadium factors" is
incorrect; most quarterbacks do show a home/road split, and we haven't
really seen a reliable, consistent impact by weather conditions across
all games in the past. (e.g. "December in New York" doesn't have a
predicative effect).
 


It's probably the case that as soon as you get a meaningful sample size to test out specific weather conditions, the QB's teammates and other circumstances have changed completely. I'd be really shocked if one couldn't come up with a meaningful indoor/outdoor adjustment though -- I don't think the fact that indoor QBs in general show a higher home/road split is a coincidence.
 


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