No-arbitrage clearly disproven; markets are inefficient 

On June 22, 2004, the value of a futures contract that delivers $1 in the case of a Bush win was $0.54.

The price of the same futures contract contingent upon a Kerry win at that time was also about $0.54.

(This market inefficiency had worked itself out by the end of the next trading day.)

(Then again, maybe traders on that day were forecasting negative interest rates in the future?)


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